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Superpower

The rise of Indonesia

Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim country by population and is one of South-East Asia’s most dynamic economies.

Located at the juncture between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it has the potential to become a leading regional power.

However, its location is also a source of considerable challenges that Indonesia will have to manage attentively in the coming years.

Indonesia’s Geography

The very name Indonesia is revealing: it comes from Greek and means “Indian Islands”. As a matter of fact, Indonesia is an archipelago located at the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean, and this is a key factor that has shaped its geopolitical thinking.

In terms of dimension and configuration, Indonesia is a vast but fragmented state. It counts over 18,000 islands; the most important of which are Sumatra, Java, the southern section of Borneo, Sulawesi and the western part of New Guinea.

These islands, covered by a thick rainforest rich in wildlife, have a volcanic origin. This means that Indonesia is vulnerable to seismic events and tsunamis; something that has a negative impact on its human security environment.

The country extends over almost 8 million square kilometres if we take into account its maritime space including the Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ. Combined with its archipelagic nature, this makes it difficult for the central state to exert its power over all the territory; also, because fragmentation is reflected in demographic terms: the population exceeds 260 million citizens divided in more than 300 ethnic groups; and this has important implications on the country’s geopolitics.

Moving on, Indonesia’s position has a deep impact on its foreign affairs. Located at the crossroad between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Indonesia plays a pivotal role for international maritime trade.

Sumatra is the southern boundary of the Malacca Strait, one of the world’s busiest waterways and a strategic chokepoint. But Indonesia also controls other important straits; notably Sunda, Lombok and Makassar. These are all essential for trade between Europe and Asia, but also for the latter’s energy security.

Most of the oil it consumes transits through these narrow passages; which explains their geostrategic relevance. Indonesia hugely benefits from its role as a gateway between the two oceans, but this also brings considerable strategic problems because foreign powers have always been trying to control the archipelago.

This continues today: China, the US, Japan and India all have major interests at stake in the Indonesian Straits, and are trying to expand their influence on the country. Finally, the archipelago also hosts important natural resources like oil, gas, minerals, timber and fish. These commodities are a source of wealth for Indonesia, but also another driver for the presence of external powers.

Indonesia’s Geopolitical Thinking

Indonesia’s nature as an archipelago and its “crossroad location”, a concept known as posisi silang, have shaped its geopolitical thinking since it gained independence from the Netherlands in 1949. Indonesia had to assert its authority over its surrounding seas to ensure its prosperity and security. A first step in this sense was the 1957 Djuanda Declaration, by which Indonesia claimed its sovereignty over all the maritime areas around the archipelago; especially those located between its main islands like the Java and Flores seas.

This stance was later recognized internationally by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982. The Djuanda Declaration was the first step towards a more comprehensive doctrine called “Maritime Archipelagic Outlook”, or Wawasan Nusantara Bahari. First formulated in 1966, this Doctrine still stands today. It considers that Indonesia’s location leaves it vulnerable to foreign meddling and that its fragmented geography endangers the unity of the state; but it is also the basis for justifying Indonesia’s leading regional role.

In geostrategic terms, the doctrine considers Java and its sea as Indonesia’s core, which must be protected from external threats. Applying a mandala logic, it identifies three concentric layers that are the base of Indonesia’s foreign and defence policy.

The innermost circle is Indonesia itself, the middle one extends to South-East Asia and Australia, while the external zone includes the rest of the world. The sea is equally important from a geoeconomic point of view.

Indonesia is a trade crossroad, it has an important fishing industry and its waters host important hydrocarbon deposits, estimated to hold 3.7 billion barrels of oil and 2,900 billion cubic feet of gas. As such, securing the sea has a primary importance for the country’s economy.

Finally, in geopolitical terms, it considers the sea as the space connecting the various islands that form its geographically and culturally fragmented territory. This configuration makes separatism easier, and therefore is seen as a threat to the unity of the state; even though it is also argued that the separation of the different national groups reduces the risk of inter-ethnic conflict. Moreover, the sea is the mean by which foreign powers have reached the archipelago in the past.

Consequently, Indonesia believes that controlling the sea is a precondition to preserve the unity and the independence of the state. In this sense, it seeks to achieve resilience both at home and in neighbouring states, assuming that Indonesia is safe only if the archipelago and the surrounding countries are stable.

Yet, Indonesia must face several challenges. Apart from numerous secessionist movements, some of which have been successful, it must also cope with illegal fishing, smuggling, unauthorized immigration and piracy. The latter was once a major problem, but it has been greatly reduced thanks to multilateral efforts and by improving the living conditions of coastal areas.

Terrorism is also a matter of concern, and several attacks have already taken place.

In economic terms, even though Indonesia’s national strategy emphasizes the cohesion of the state and aims to limit foreign meddling, most of its hydrocarbons and of its resources in general are exploited by foreign corporations. In addition, there is a great disparity between urban areas like Jakarta and the rest of the country, especially outside Java.

Indonesia’s power

Indonesia can be considered a middle power, but it is definitely a rising one. Its GDP is the largest in South-East Asia, and in 2017 it amounted to 3.25 trillion measured in US dollars of the same year in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. This ranked the country as the world’s 7th largest economy, and it is projected to become the 4th by 2050. Indonesia’s steady 5% growth rate is helped by low inflation, a budget deficit under control and a public debt representing just 29% of the GDP. Moreover, saving is quite high at around 32% and investments are flowing in, thus paving the way to a continued growth. The trade balance is positive, driven by the export of commodities like oil, gas, coal, metals and palm oil; but also many other low added-value products such as clothing and electric components. Always in terms of PPP, its per capita GDP reached 12,700 dollars in 2017: a still low figure, but a remarkable progress from past levels. Unemployment is only 5.5%; yet, agriculture still retains 32% of the workforce and around 10% of Indonesians live below the poverty line, with 21% remaining at risk. The country also has real problems in terms of corruption and inequality, and must face notable environmental challenges: rising sea levels, deforestation, and extreme weather are already causing notable losses to its economy and are menacing its human security.

Indonesia’s armed forces are also evolving. It spends about 0.8% of its GDP on defence; and in spite of the emphasis given to the sea, the Army has a greater importance than the Navy. Land forces, notably marines and special forces units trained for asymmetric warfare, are indeed important for such a fragmented country; but the Navy remains underdeveloped. It mainly relies on corvettes, and having only 8 frigates and less than 5 diesel-electric submarines seems insufficient, even though it has a good park of minesweepers and there are talks to buy more subs. Similarly, the Air Force only counts around 40 fighters and some attack aircraft. These two branches have quite advanced equipment and are better than those of most ASEAN countries, but Indonesia will need to expand them to affirm itself as a regional power and to cope with challenges like China’s rise.

Conclusion: Indonesia’s foreign policy today

The maritime dimension, control over the straits, internal stability, autonomy from foreign influences and an active regional role have been the cornerstones of Indonesia’s foreign policy for decades. In 1955, Indonesia held a conference in Bandung that marked the birth of the non-aligned movement of states that did not want to side with neither the US nor the USSR.

Today, it still keeps this stance. Regionally, it supports integration through the Association of South-East Asian Nations, or ASEAN; and it aspires to become its leader. In its relations with external powers, notably the US and China, it attempts maximizing its autonomy by keeping ties with all of them. Indonesia maintains good political and trade relations with both, but it is worth mentioning that it hosts a significant Chinese diaspora which represents around 1% of the population and runs many successful business activities. At the same time, it also cooperates with other powers. Japan and India are important economic partners and security cooperation is growing, especially with the latter. Indonesia also trades with European countries; which are also important arms suppliers.

It is expected that Indonesia’s foreign policy will continue along this line in the next future: trying to maintain its partnership with multiple countries so to maximize its benefit and freedom of action. But in the evolving international scenery of the Indo-Pacific, where the US maintain a strong presence all while China and India are rising, it will be hard for Indonesia not to take sides.

Geopolitics of Brazil

Brazil is South America’s emerging power. It is the largest and most populous country in the continent; and it benefits from a favourable geographic position, important natural resources and a growing economy. As such, it is taking a more active international role both in the region and beyond. Yet, it must also face notable challenges; notably corruption, criminality, inequality and others; all of which may undermine its rise as a great power.

Geography and Brazil’s rise

Like any other country, Brazil’s geopolitics can be examined as a combination of three factors: dimension, configuration and position.

Brazil covers a total area of about 8,515,000 square kilometres, making of it the 5th country in the world in terms of size. This puts Brazil in a favourable position to dominate the continent, as it can access any region with relative ease. Similarly, its 7,500 kilometres-long coastline on the Atlantic Ocean enables Brazil to easily project its power abroad and to engage in lucrative maritime trade.

In terms of configuration, Brazil’s territory can roughly be divided in two parts. The north-west is centred on the Amazon river basin and its vast rainforest, the largest in the world and a real treasure in terms of biodiversity. The south-east is made up of ridges and mountain ranges crossed by the Parana river. As a matter of facts, watercourses are an important feature in Brazil’s geography: the country has a complex hydrographic system that brings significant benefits to electric power generation and agriculture, which is also favoured by Brazil’s warm climate. Most of Brazil’s 208 million citizens, the majority of which are young people, live in the cities along the coast. This has resulted into vast metropolis where economic prosperity meets overcrowded slums.

But position is Brazil’s most important characteristic. It borders ten nations, meaning all the countries in South America except Ecuador and Chile. None of its neighbours represents a real threat, and not only because relations are generally good: Brazil is simply more powerful than any of them. Even Argentina, the second most influent country in the continent, cannot seriously challenge Brazil’s supremacy due to a worse geopolitical and economic situation. Other states are not a real matter of concern; yet, they are important for Brazil’s own geopolitical ambitions. Brazil wants to extend its influence westwards to connect the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans so to unlock its innermost territories, become the centre of coast-to-coast trade and increase its regional influence. To reach this objective, Brazil needs to keep the URAPABOL area in its sphere of influence. This zone takes its name after the three states composing it: Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia. They are seen as South America’s geopolitical pivot, meaning that the power who controls them can extend its influence over all the continent and obtain a dominant position. Moreover, the URAPABOL states were also seen as useful buffer zone against foreign threats and Argentina in particular; even though today the likelihood of a war is really remote. For these reasons, Brazil is attentive to maintain a solid political, economic and demographic presence in these three countries. But Brazil’s is also located along the Atlantic’s coasts, meaning that it can easily reach the large American and European markets to the North; as well as Africa with its natural resources and many fast-growing economies. So, Brazil also wants to become a naval power to boost its economy and develop its Navy to project its power abroad.

Brazil’s economic & military outlook

Apart from geography, Brazil also has natural resources, a considerable economic potential and important military means.

Brazil is certainly South America’s leading economy, but its outlook is made of mixed figures. This year, its GDP is projected to reach 1.9 thousand billion dollars, which goes to 3.5 thousand in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. The expected growth rate is of 2.4% in current prices. Brazil was at the 9th place on the list of the world’s largest economies in 2018, and it is expected to reach the 5th position by 2050. Its per capita GDP will stand around 16.7 thousand dollars in 2019, a relatively low figure to be combined with an unequal distribution of wealth. After years of high inflation, the price growth seems to have stabilized at around 3.5%. The debt of the central government is on the rise, amounting to almost 79% of the GDP in 2017, Along with a slight budget deficit of around 1%, this trend can become problematic in the long term. Unemployment affects 10.7% of the population today, and 4% of Brazilians lived below the poverty line in 2016. The trade balance has been in constant surplus for years, sustained by agriculture and manufacturing exports. As a matter of fact, Brazil is a true agronomic giant and its industry is also developing in many sectors. In addition, it also hosts significant hydrocarbon and mineral reserves, and is a leading producer of biogas. However, this has negative environmental consequences: huge swathes of the Amazon rainforest have been cut to grow the crops required for producing biogas; and also for other reasons like timber production. Brazil has nuclear reactors for energy generation and infrastructures are being improved, but much work remains to be done.

This overview shows that Brazil is indeed an emerging country, but like other economies in analogous conditions it has still considerable challenges to deal with. Corruption, poverty and inequality continue affecting its economy. This has important repercussions on the country’s political life, since similar matters are a cause of social unrest and high crime rates. In fact, Jair Bolsonaro has been elected President largely out of promises of tackling corruption, reforming the economy and crushing criminality.

Brazil is the main power in South America also in military terms. It spends regularly more than 1.32% of its GDP on defence, and it possesses large and well-equipped armed forces who remain politically influential. The Army includes, among others, specialized units for jungle warfare and a vast park of vehicles. It also maintains the Strategic Rapid Action Force, ready to be deployed anywhere in the country at a short notice. In recent years, due to better relations with Argentina and in accordance to its strategy to extend its power westwards, it has relocated many units in the Amazon area. The Air Force operates fighters, cargos and airborne warning & control planes. But the Navy is the most notable component of the Brazilian military, as it is a powerful mean of power projection. Today, it includes diesel-electric submarines, landing ships and a helicopter carrier plus naval aviation and marines; and it also plans to deploy a nuclear-powered attack submarine by 2025. Finally, Brazil also possesses a considerable defence industry and carries on its own space program.

Brazil’s foreign relations

Brazil’s foreign policy is largely based on multilateralism. It maintains pretty good relations with its neighbours, and it is a member of the main regional bodies like the Organization of American States, the Union of South American Nations and the Southern Common Market; where it plays an important role in promoting integration. It provides economic aid to developing countries, notably African ones; but this is also motivated by economic interests, like accessing resources and opening new markets for Brazilian firms. It also takes part to UN missions and promotes the enlargement of the UN Security Council. Moreover, it is a member of the informal BRICS group along with Russia, India, China and South Africa; and it keeps cooperating with all of them all while maintaining good ties with the US and with European countries.

Now that Bolsonaro is President, US-Brazil relations will receive a boost: Bolsonaro is openly pro-American and share many similar views with Trump: they oppose immigration, they are close to Christian and conservative groups, they promise to crush criminality and fight terrorism, they are favourable to death penalty, they support the rights of gun owners, their economic policy focuses on privatization and deregulation at home while protecting their industry from foreign competition by introducing tariffs, they criticize authoritarian regimes and are very friendly towards Israel and other pro-US states like Japan or South Korea, and they are hostile to foreign (and especially Chinese) economic penetration in their countries. Since Brazil is the main power in South America and the only one capable of countering US supremacy to some degree, Bolsonaro’s election is a gift for America: it virtually ensures that Brazil will remain friendly and that it will oppose rival powers like China and Russia. Both of them are indeed expanding their presence in South America to access resources and to subtract the area from American influence, but now their efforts risk being thwarted. Nevertheless, China remains a central economic partner for Brazil, and along with Russia it will continue to extend its presence in South America. Brazil, on its part, will maintain its multilateral approach to diversify its partnerships, maximize its benefits and increase its global influence.

Conclusion

Brazil is South America’s main power and its influence in international affairs will certainly increase in the future. Yet, its economic growth is not as spectacular as China’s or India’s; and it has to face many challenges like poverty and inequality, environmental degradation, corruption and social unrest. All such factors will limit its geopolitical role. But Brazil, is that contrarily to other emerging countries, it is not involved in rivalries with other states and it is not challenging the existing international order. Instead, it focuses on multilateralism and mutually-beneficial cooperation. This is probably the most remarkable aspect of Brazil’s rise: at least by now, it looks that it will be peaceful and not destabilizing.

Will France remain a great power?

In recent years, France’s geopolitical environment has dramatically deteriorated. With the rise of populism in all corners of the Western world from the Brexit vote to the election of Donald Trump, the migration crisis in Europe as a result of the Arab Spring, the Libya and Syria crisis have created an atmosphere of insecurity . France has also deployed troops to Estonia as part of NATO battalions in response to an emboldened Russia.

Twelve months ago, in October 2017, the Ministry of Defense published a national security strategic review that intended to address the most immediate challenges France faces as well as clear vision of long-term geopolitical and technological trends. I’m Kasim, this is KJ Vids and in this video, we will look at France’s role in the world and the direction in which it is heading. Will France remain a GREAT POWER?

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