Will Turkey Invade Syria? 5 Geopolitical Points You Need to Know

1. The recent collapse of ceasefire: a bad sign

The collapse of the ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib province has triggered “total panic” and threatened the lives of millions, according to the UN. A short truce declared by the Syrian regime this week in the country’s north-west was finished and fighting resumed immediately. The United Nations has raised a specific alarm about the risks of a massive government offensive in the area because Idlib has for several years served as a reception zone for those escaping government advances elsewhere in the country. This is a negative sign of the prospects of the Syrian civil war coming to an end, as the government seems persistence in its aggression, even through a ceasefire, and the rebels refuse to back down.

2. Turkey and Syria quarrel over Syria

As Syria’s future remains unknown, Turkey and the US are engaged in a diplomatic fight for influence in the North of Syria. On Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey, which already has a foothold in northwest Syria, will carry out a military operation in a Kurdish-controlled area east of the Euphrates in northern Syria against the US-backed Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) that Ankara views as a terrorist group. The US has warned against this action and asked to step up talks for its prevention. However, if Erdogan insists and goes ahead with his plans, violence could ensue, which would cause a complete break of US-Turkey relations, as well as worsening the situation in Syria.

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3. Isis reappearing in Syria

4. Fear of Turkish invasion

5. Ray of hope for Syrian refugees?

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